Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Station Break: Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November

Thought this blog entry was well worth sharing. Very optimistic for Kerry fans!

'Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November' from Political Strategy.

1) Bush must lead by 4%: Professor Alan of the Emerging Democratic Majority shows that Bush must go into November 2 with an average of at least a 4% lead in such polls if he is to have any sort of hope for four more years.

2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon: Traditional polling relies almost exclusively on landline telephone. Unfortunately, according to Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, as much as 18% of the electorate don't have land lines and instead rely exclusively on cell phones. The Hill gives us a little something about this demographic. Anyone care to venture a guess as to how this demographic overwhelmingly votes? Yup. According to Newsweek (10/16/04), Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9 points.

3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster: Zogby, which touts the most accurate polls for the last two presidential elections, calls for a very strong Kerry victory. He has referred to the race as "Kerry's to lose."

In 2000, Zogby was one of several pollsters that was only two cumulative
percentage points off from the actual, but it was the only one in that group
to actually choose Gore as the winner (which we all know he was). In
1996, Zogby hit the nail right on the head. Sure, everyone predicted a
Clinton victory, but Zogby predicted the exact percentage totals for
Clinton, Dole...and even Perot at 8%.

4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States: Kerry is doing extremely well where it matters, leading Bush by 10% in the swing states. According to the Washington post.

5) PA Goes to Kerry:Pennsylvania is NOT in play! (and neither is New Jersey. Don't let the GOP Poll 'Strategic Vision' fool you.) That leaves Ohio and Florida as the next target.

Click the headline for more. A must read!


Anonymous said...

Wow. Before the primaries, Dean had a substantial lead.

Guess those polls really are something to keep a close eye on, huh?

I guess on the eve of the election, when all you happy young libs parade into polling places followed by streams of bitter ambulance chasers, you can argue "But... But... Democracy corps said he was gonna win! It's a fix!"

Howard Dean won in the polls, too.

Haven't heard much from him lately, either.

ltr said...

Yours would have been a better comment had it actually made some sense.

Just what the hell are you talking about anyway?

Anonymous said...

Do you read what you write? Or do you just copy and paste?

Reasons Kerry will win, and then you base it on poll after poll after poll.

Well, based on polls, Howard Dean won all the primaries.

I mean, by your logic, he kicked absolute ass.

Where is he again?

ltr said...

Are you going to show me those polls? I'd like to see some.

Most of the polls I saw with Dean in the lead were from before the primaries (mid-late 2003). Once they began, I saw a lot of state polls going for Kerry.

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